This analysis will warm the hearts of Democrats (thanks to the mydd.com political web site for this tidbit):
Pennsylvania in the Bag?by Chris Bowers
Hard to imagine, but the latest Qunnipiac Poll suggests that my state may be out of reach for Preznit:
July 6-11, 1500 RV, MoE 2.5, June 24 numbers in parenthesis Two-Way Trial Kerry: 49 (49) Bush: 42 (43)Bush Job Approval
Disapprove: 52 (53)
Approve: 45 (45)This seems like no big deal. Kerry leads, but not something that Bush would be unable to overcome. However, look at these numbers:
Unfavorables
Statewide
Bush: 42 (42)
Kerry: 28 (30)Central NW
Bush 34 35
Kerry 32 31Philly NE
Bush 62 41
Kerry 14 31Not only is Bush getting crushed and making negative progress in the unfavorables department, Philadelphia shows that Bush is actually over-performing. The city of Philadelphia, with 1/8 of the state's voters, regularly gives Democrats around 85% of the two-party vote. Bush is way down, and Philadelphia has not even maxed out yet. This is because Bush is behind in the two most Republican areas of the state: central and northwest PA. He is down by ten in lean-Republican Northeast PA. Actually, Bush's unfavorables are higher than Kerry's in every part of the state!
While this is only one poll, it suggests Pennsylvania is a rout in the making for Kerry. Also, remember that both campaigns are not advertising as heavily here as they are in almost all other swing sates. Perhaps they both know something. If Kerry wins PA, he only needs either OH or FL to nearly seal the election. Things are looking goooood.
Update: I didn't notice the first time I looked at the poll, but Bush has a 37-59 approve / disapprove among independents in this poll, while Dems and Reps are 82-16 mirrors. Further, Bush's unfavorables among indies are at 46, while Kerry's are at 19. These are nail in the coffin type numbers.
