Reuters ran a story today projecting Barack Obama winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on complex models used by economists successfully in the past. (One of the best-known such economists is former Choate parent Ray Fair.) Such a margin means it's likely Obama will win the Electoral College as well, though the Fair model projected a Gore popular vote win in 2000 which, though accurate, did not result in Gore moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue!
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Economic Models For The Presidential Election
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